Sales forecast
Quick answer
The estimate of revenue closing in a period, computed from the pipeline by weighting on stage and real historical conversion.
Key takeaways
- Committed - opportunities in negotiation with confirmed date and decision maker
- Weighted - values multiplied by the real probability of each stage
- Best case - includes at-risk opportunities, used only for capacity planning
What it is
A sales forecast turns the pipeline into a number decisions can be made on: how much stock to order, how many people to hire, what cash-flow to expect.
Three forecast levels
- Committed - opportunities in negotiation with confirmed date and decision maker
- Weighted - values multiplied by the real probability of each stage
- Best case - includes at-risk opportunities, used only for capacity planning
How quality is measured
Compare the start-of-month forecast with end-of-month actuals. Under 15% error over 30 days is a good B2B result; above 30% means pipeline stages are poorly defined.
How CRMconnect helps
Probabilities are computed from actual conversion over the last 12 months rather than software defaults, and forecast error is tracked automatically month by month.
Real-world example
A manufacturer moved from 34% to 11% average forecast error in four months, purely by recomputing probabilities from history and flagging stalled opportunities.
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Frequently asked
Who sets opportunity probability?+
The system, from the stage and conversion history. Left to the rep, probability becomes an internal negotiation tool.
What horizon makes sense for a forecast?+
A horizon equal to the average sales cycle. For a 45-day cycle, 30- and 60-day forecasts are useful; at 12 months it becomes planning, not forecasting.
Where CRMconnect fits
Related terms
Sales pipeline
A structured view of open opportunities grouped by stage, used to estimate future revenue and prioritise commercial effort.
SalesWin rate
The share of closed opportunities that were won - the main indicator of sales process and qualification quality.
SalesSales cycle
The average time from first qualified interaction to a signed order - the metric that determines how fast commercial effort turns into cash.