Forecast accuracy
Quick answer
How close the forecast committed at period start lands to actual results.
Key takeaways
- A wrong forecast means wrong stock, wrong cash flow, wrong hiring
- A director who does not know their own variance cannot commit to the board
Accuracy = 1 - |forecast - actual| / actual, measured per cycle and per owner.
Why it is a management issue
- A wrong forecast means wrong stock, wrong cash flow, wrong hiring
- A director who does not know their own variance cannot commit to the board
How to improve it
- Probability driven by stage and real activity, not rep optimism
- Weekly review only on deals that move the number
- Per-rep history: consistent over-callers get weighted
Real-world example
€900k forecast against €700k actual is 71% accuracy. If 80% of the gap comes from two reps, the fix is targeted.
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Frequently asked
What level is acceptable?+
With 1-3 month cycles, 85-90% quarterly accuracy is realistic after two or three disciplined cycles.
Why don't manual estimates work?+
They are shaped by target pressure; stage and activity weighting corrects the bias.
Where CRMconnect fits
Related terms
Sales forecast
The estimate of revenue closing in a period, computed from the pipeline by weighting on stage and real historical conversion.
SalesPipeline coverage
How many times open pipeline value covers the period's sales target.
SalesSales pipeline
A structured view of open opportunities grouped by stage, used to estimate future revenue and prioritise commercial effort.